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Models Are No Better Than Weather Forecasts

To say, “This is a very fluid environment”, would be a tremendous understatement. However, to go on to state, “This is will be worse than 2008” would be an equal overstatement. The reality is, we do not
have any information that can guide during an event like this. The Models, today, are no better than a weather forecast in rapidly changing weather conditions.

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Models Are Not Predictions, But They Offer Guidance

As a part of my research related to this unprecedented worldwide event, I have been reviewing information from our research firm and investment product vendors. This effort is designed to gain a view of the consensus themes and an idea of where the markets might go from here.

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This Too, Shall Pass

Let’s simply admit this pandemic is worse than expected. That is not to say it is the end of the world. As a New Orleanian, I remember the day after Katrina when we recognized the hurricane had not destroyed the city, but then the water started coming in and rising.

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Making Sense of the Market

The title above seems silly at first. How can you make sense of this market? But, when you think about the current actions taking place, market reaction makes perfect sense.

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A Bear Market is Upon Us

The panicked selling in the United States equity markets continued Wednesday as one of the major U.S. indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), reached bear market territory as fears of the coronavirus intensified as the World Health Organization declared the outbreak an official global pandemic.

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