Market Commentary – Week Ending September 12, 2025
Markets delivered another solid week of performance, with major indices extending their summer gains. Technology and Communication Services remained leadership sectors, while Industrials and Financials provided cyclical support. Breadth has improved from the narrow advances we saw earlier in the year, though gains remain heavily influenced by mega-cap growth stocks.
The Positives
The U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Employment remains strong, consumer spending has held up, and corporate earnings are generally surprising to the upside. Inflation, while not back to the Fed’s target, has moderated meaningfully from its peaks. Globally, markets outside the U.S. have also shown signs of life, with emerging markets in particular beginning to participate more meaningfully in the rally. This backdrop supports Ed Yardeni’s “Roaring 2020s” narrative — an era of productivity growth, technological innovation, and consumer strength.
Signs of Weakness
But beneath the surface, signs of strain are building. Certain consumer sectors show fatigue, health care has lagged badly, and energy has softened. Inflation progress has stalled in services, particularly housing and health care. Debt issuance has ballooned, and longer-term Treasury yields are beginning to test markets’ ability to absorb supply. Abroad, Europe and China continue to face structural challenges that could spill over into global demand. BCA Research remains much more cautious than Yardeni. Their models show the market significantly overvalued relative to fair value. They argue that cyclicals and defensives should take precedence over growth leadership, warning that concentrated gains in technology carry bubble-like risks.
Potential Catalysts for Decline
- Fed- Missteps: Cutting rates too soon could fuel a melt-up and subsequent meltdown; holding too long could push the economy into a downturn.
- Treasury Policy: Heavy issuance, or experiments like the so-called “Genius Act” of stablecoin-backed T-bills, could destabilize bond markets.
- Geopolitical & Trade Shocks: Tariffs, conflicts, or supply disruptions could reignite inflation or pressure earnings.
- Valuations: With forward P/Es stretched, any stumble in earnings growth could quickly reset multiples.
Our Perspective
At Planning Associates, we often hear the joke: “Ralph must be writing because things are bad.” In truth, I write most when conditions require context. This week is different: things are actually pretty good, but deterioration is clearly taking place. That’s precisely when prudence and discipline matter most. The economy shows undeniable strength, but risks are building. The policy backdrop is uncertain, and both the Fed and Treasury have a history of missteps. We prefer to let markets and the economy work themselves out rather than rely too heavily on interventions that can create unintended consequences — both good and bad.
Conclusion
It is, in many ways, a tale of two perspectives: Yardeni’s optimism versus BCA’s caution. We believe the truth lies somewhere in between. Our job is not to predict perfectly, but to manage prudently — leaning into opportunity where conviction is highest, while maintaining discipline and diversification to withstand the inevitable volatility ahead.
Planning Associates Wealth Management | 3501 N. Causeway Blvd., Suite 104, Metairie, LA 70005 | Tel: 504.291.1525 | www.planningassociates.com
This commentary reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints and analyses of Planning Associates Wealth Management, LLC employees providing such comments, and should not be regarded as a description of advisory services provided by Planning Associates Wealth Management, LLC or performance returns of any Planning Associates Wealth Management, LLC client. The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice. Nothing in this commentary constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. Planning Associates Wealth Management, LLC manages its clients’ accounts using a variety of investment techniques and strategies, which are not necessarily discussed in the commentary. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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